Rapid Melting of Himalayan Glaciers: Climate-Hydrological Modeling and Regional Water Security Strategies
हिमालयी ग्लेशियरों का तीव्र पिघलाव: क्लाइमेट-हाइड्रोलॉजिकल मॉडलिंग और क्षेत्रीय जल-सुरक्षा रणनीतियाँ
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31305/rrijm2025.v05.n01.023Keywords:
Himalayan Glaciers, Climate Modeling, Hydrological Model, Regional Water Security StrategiesAbstract
This research paper analyzes the rapid melting of Himalayan glaciers using climate-hydrological modeling, with the objective of estimating glacier mass loss rates, seasonal river flow changes, and framing regional water security strategies. Modeling results project an estimated 15% loss in glacier mass by 2050, and up to 30% by 2100, potentially leading to a 20% increase in peak summer flows and a 25% decline in winter discharge. The findings underscore the urgent need for transboundary water agreements, rainwater harvesting, managed aquifer recharge, and the establishment of real-time monitoring networks. The study recommends that these measures be implemented promptly through a combination of policy initiatives and active community participation.
Abstract in Hindi Language: यह शोध हिमालयी ग्लेशियरों के तीव्र पिघलाव का क्लाइमेट-हाइड्रोलॉजिकल मॉडलिंग के माध्यम से विश्लेषण करता है, जिसका उद्देश्य ग्लेशियर मास लॉस की दर, मौसमी नदी प्रवाह में बदलाव और क्षेत्रीय जल-सुरक्षा रणनीतियाँ निर्धारित करना है। मॉडलिंग के परिणामस्वरूप 2050 तक ग्लेशियर मास में लगभग 15% और 2100 तक 30% तक की कमी का अनुमान मिलता है, जिससे ग्रीष्मकालीन चरम प्रवाह में 20% वृद्धि और शीतकालीन कटाव में 25% तक गिरावट की संभावना है। निहितार्थों में ट्रांस-बाउंडरी जल समझौतों, वर्षा जल संचयन, प्रबंधित जलभृत पुनर्भरण और रियल टाइम मॉनिटरिंग नेटवर्क की अनिवार्यता उभरकर आती है। सुझाव हैं कि इन उपायों को नीति निर्माण और स्थानीय समुदायों के सहयोग से शीघ्र लागू किया जाए।
Keywords: हिमालयी ग्लेशियर, क्लाइमेट मॉडलिंग, हाइड्रोलॉजिकल मॉडल, क्षेत्रीय जल-सुरक्षा रणनीतियाँ
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